R&D项目投资风险预警控制模型与实证研究

中国加入WTO后,企业为获得更高的市场竞争能力,急需通过R＆D活动来提高其技术水平.随着产业技术创新动力机制模式和创新政策的完善,企业R＆D投入必将大幅增加.企业R&D活动存在大量不确定性,尤其是技术的外部性极有可能导致其R＆D投资失败.因此企业需要对R&D项目投资风险进行预警控制.在定量测量企业R＆D项目投资风险的基础上,利用系统独立性原理和休哈特控制图建立预警控制界限,事前判断企业多R&D项目投资风险值是否受控；并采用时间回归方法判断企业决策者的心理趋势是否有变动；最后以某企业为案例验证了该方法的有效性.

Model of Risk Forewarning Control of R&D Investment Projects and Empirical Study in Chinese construction enterprises

After the entry of WTO,enterprises acutely need to improve the technology level through R&D activities for the market competitive ability.With the perfection of the mode of technology innovation dynamic mechanism and policy in the industry,its enterprises will add the input of R&D extremely.Because of the uncertainties of R&D activity in enterprises,especially the character of easy-used of construction technology,the investment of R&D is extremely likely to fail.So,the enterprises need to forewarn the risk of R&D investment projects.This paper prescribes the risk measurement of R&D investment projects in enterprises and builds the forewarning limitation based on the principle of system dependence and Shewhart control charts to warn the fluctuation of risk values of R&D investment projects in enterprises early.Then the mental trend of decision-makers in enterprises is correctly judged by the method of time series regression.In the last,the validity of the model is proved by a case.