| 灰色GM(0,h)模型应用于台风预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 李祚泳,李继陶,陈祯培.灰色GM(0,h)模型应用于台风预报[J].四川大学学报(自然科学版),1990(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李祚泳 李继陶 陈祯培 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都气象学院
(李祚泳)，四川大学物理系
(李继陶)，四川大学物理系(陈祯培) |
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| 摘 要： | 应用灰色系统理论,建立了我国华南沿海登陆台风预报模型。该模型在对前期因子数据序列和预报量的前期数据的映射序列,分别作累加生成的基础上,应用灰色GM(0,h)建模,建立前期因子与后期预报变量之间的量化关系,并通过残差辨识提高了拟合率。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 台风预报 映射序列 数据序列 |
APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM MODEL GM(0,h) TO LONG PERIOD FORECASTING OF TYPHON |
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| Li Zuoyong Li Jitao Chen Zhenpei.APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM MODEL GM(0,h) TO LONG PERIOD FORECASTING OF TYPHON[J].Journal of Sichuan University (Natural Science Edition),1990(4). |
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| Authors: | Li Zuoyong Li Jitao Chen Zhenpei |
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| Institution: | Li Zuoyong Li Jitao Chen Zhenpei(Chengdu Institute of Meteorology) (Dept. of Physics) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, a new forecasting method of Typhon is presented based on the new theory of grey system. The basic idea of the method is to generate the observed original data sequence of factors and the mapping sequence of previousely observed data of predictable of variables by successive addition. |
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| Keywords: | grey model Typhon forecasting mapping sequence data sequence |
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