应用正交设计法的公交出行意愿与政策分析

选择成都市二环路沿线两大城市功能组团为研究对象，采用Logit模型研究两个组团间的公交出行选择行为问题。意愿调查问卷设计方法采用国际上前沿的正交设计法，避免属性之间多重线性问题所导致的模型标定结果错误。选取费用，时间（包含车内时间、下车到目的地时间）和收入等因素作为效用变量，建立多项Logit和巢式Logit模型，结合意愿调查数据完成模型标定，通过参数假设检验对比不同模型的结果，最终选择多项Logit模型用于公交政策评估；最后，依据模型标定结果确定的对公交出行行为具有显著影响的变量，分析了这些变量对指定公交政策的影响，为科学决策提供理论依据。

Application of orthogonal design method to study construction of public transport behavior and policy analysis

The second ring road of Chengdu, a traffic corridor between Southwest Jiaotong University district and Jinsha Park dis- trict, was selected to analyze the bus travel behavior. The orthogonal design method was used to specify the stated preference questionnaires to avoid some mistakes that may occur during the process of the model calibration. Factors like time, cost and in- come were selected as the utility variables to construct the Muhinomial Logit （MNL） model and Nest Logit （NL） model. The stated preference data were used to calibrate the Logit models. The statistical analysis showed that the MNL outperforms NL model. Finally, the MNL model was used to evaluate the public transport Dolicv.