大城市边缘区土地利用变化模拟研究——以北京市昌平区为例

近年来,土地利用变化模拟模型成为GLP的研究热点.大城市边缘区土地利用因变化剧烈而特殊,一直都是LUCC研究的重点领域.本研究采用国际前沿的土地利用变化及其影响空间建模方法——CLUE-S模型,基于GIS分析和统计分析,以北京市昌平区为例,运用1996年和2004年土地利用数据,构建CLUE-S模型,对2007—2015年不同土地利用政策情景下土地利用变化进行模拟,得到2010年和2015年的土地利用模拟图.结果表明:(1)专门针对中小尺度区域的CLUE-S模型能够对区域内的土地利用变化进行较好的模拟和预测,其中对分布相对集中的林地和建设用地的模拟效果相对较好,而对比较分散的园地、耕地和城市绿地的模拟效果相对较差;(2)在Markov情景下,建设用地的扩张最为明显;粮食安全情景下,山前平原区质量比较好的耕地没有转换为建设用地;而生态安全情景下,林地得到比较好的保护,并且林地的增加在靠近城区和高速公路的两侧最为明显.本研究可为研究区土地利用规划修编和土地可持续性管理提供科学依据.

Land Use Change Simulation on the Edge of Metropolis——A Case Study of Changping District in Beijing

In recent years, research on simulating model for land use change has become a hot topic. The land use change on the edge of metropolis is undoubtedly selected as the hot field of LUCC research for its intense and representative change. Based on GIS analysis, statistic analysis, land use data within Changping district in Beijing in year 1996 and 2006, we utilized CLUE-S model, an advanced land use change simulation and spatial modeling framework, to simulate the land use from year 2007 to 2015 under different-orientation land use policy .The following conclusions were obtained: (1) The CLUE-S model was appropriate to simulate and predict land use conversion in area of medium and small scale, and it was more suitable for the simulation and prediction of forest and construction relatively concentrated areas than the area scatteredly distributed with garden, agricultural and urban green land.(2) Under the Markov scenario , the expansion of construction land is most obvious; under the food safety scenario, the agricultural land with high quality on the plains in front of mountain will not be converted into construction land; and under the safety of ecology, forest land will be well protected. In addition, the expansion of forest land will first occur either on the edge of urban area or beside the expressways. All in all, this paper is meaningful to the Land Use Plan Modification and sustainable management of land use.