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Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS
作者姓名:XU  Yinlong  ZHANG  Yong  LIN  Erda  LIN  Wantao  DONG  Wenjie  Richard  Jones  David  Hassell  Simon  Wilson
作者单位:[1]Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China [2]Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China [3]National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China [4]Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter EXI 3PB, UK
基金项目:The climate observation data are obtained from Climatic Data Center ,Meteorological Information Center ,China Meteorological Administration .The first author of this paper joinde Hadley Centre to work on developing PRECIS under the invitaion of Dr Geoff Jenkins in 2002.This work was suported by the China's National Key Technologies R & D Program (Grant No. 2004BA611B02) and the UK-China Collaborative Project on Climate Change.
摘    要:The global climate has been altered by the anthro- pogenic forcing due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) emis- sions. It is pointed out in the Third Assessments Report (TAR)1] of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 that over the 20th centur…

关 键 词:地面气温  降水  PRECIS  气候变化  中国
收稿时间:2006-02-20
修稿时间:2006-02-202006-04-11

Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS
XU Yinlong ZHANG Yong LIN Erda LIN Wantao DONG Wenjie Richard Jones David Hassell Simon Wilson.Analyses on the climate change responses over China under SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2006,51(18):2260-2267.
Authors:Yinlong Xu  Yong Zhang  Erda Lin  Wantao Lin  Wenjie Dong  Richard Jones  David Hassell  Simon Wilson
Institution:(1) Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China;(2) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10029, China;(3) National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China;(4) Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Abstract:The PRECIS, a regional climate model system developed at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which is nested in one-way mode within the HadAM3P, a higher-resolution version of the atmospheric component of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, is employed to simulate the baseline (1961–1990) climate for evaluation of model’s capacity of simulating present climate and analyze the future climate change responses in the time-slice of 2071–2100 (2080s) under SRES B2 scenario over China relative to baseline average. It is indicated from the comparison of the simulated baseline climate with in situ observation that PRECIS can simulate the local distribution characteristics of surface air temperature over China quite well; generally speaking, the simulation for precipitation in the north of China and in winter is better than in the south of China and in summer, respectively; the simulation of precipitation in summer is sensitive to topography, and the simulated precipitation values are lower than observations over southeast coastal areas. It is shown from the analyses on the simulated climate change responses in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario relative to base-line that there would be an obvious surface air temperature increase in the north of China relative to that in the south of China, and especially in Northwest China and Northeast China, the amplitude of summer mean surface air temperature increments could reach 5°C; there would be an overall increase of the simulated precipitation in 2080s under SRES B2 scenario over most areas of China, while there would be significant precipitation decreases in South China in winter; there would be obvious precipitation decreases in Northeast China and North China in summer with high surface air temperature increase. However, it presents an obvious precipitation increase over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in summer.
Keywords:surface air temperature  precipitation  PRECIS  SRES B2 scenario  climate change responses    
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