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Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios
作者姓名:BUEHCholaw
作者单位:LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029,China
基金项目:中国科学院资助项目,国家发展基础科学项目,国家自然科学基金 
摘    要:In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

关 键 词:模拟  亚洲东方  季风  气侯变化  大气循环模型
收稿时间:2002-07-29
修稿时间:2002-12-24

Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios
BUEHCholaw.Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(10):1024-1030.
Authors:Cholaw Bueh
Institution:BUEH Cholaw LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Abstract:In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.
Keywords:East Asian monsoon  Climate change  IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios  
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