| A new approach to studying ENSO predictability： Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation |
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| 作者姓名： | MUMu DUANWansuo |
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| 作者单位： | LASG,InstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029,China |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)，国家自然科学基金，中国科学院资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | A new approach, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is introduced to study the predictability of El Nifio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a theoretical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The differences between CNOP and linear singular vector (LSV) are demonstrated. The results suggest that the nonlinear model and CNOP are superior in determining error growth for studying predictability of the ENSO. In particular, the CNOP approach is used to explore the nature of the ‘spring predictability barrier‘ in ENSO prediction.
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| 关 键 词： | 研究方法 非线性最优混乱条件 天气预报 ENSO模型 海洋大气模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-07-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-01-04 |
A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation |
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| MUMu DUANWansuo.A new approach to studying ENSO predictability: Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2003,48(10):1045-1047. |
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| Authors: | Mu Mu Wansuo Duan |
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| Institution: | MU Mu & DUAN Wansuo LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China |
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| Abstract: | A new approach, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is introduced to study the predictability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using a theoretical coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The differences between CNOP and linear singular vector (LSV) are demonstrated. The results suggest that the nonlinear model and CNOP are superior in determining error growth for studying predictability of the ENSO. In particular, the CNOP approach is used to explore the nature of the ‘spring predictability barrier’ in ENSO prediction. |
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| Keywords: | nonlinear optimal perturbation predictability ENSO model |
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