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2006-2050年西藏人口发展趋势预测
引用本文:郭志仪,曹建云.2006-2050年西藏人口发展趋势预测[J].西藏大学学报,2006,21(4):6-13,27.
作者姓名:郭志仪  曹建云
作者单位:兰州大学经济学院 甘肃兰州730000
基金项目:2005年甘肃省政府援藏项目《西藏自治区人口发展报告》
摘    要:人口是社会发展的主体,和谐社会应以和谐人口为基础,实现西藏人口和谐发展必须要认清西藏目前人口的现状,把握西藏人口未来的发展趋势。文章利用中国人口信息中心提供的人口预测软件CPPS对西藏2006-2050年人口发展趋势做出了预测,结果表明:(1)西藏人口将保持持续增长的态势,2006-2050年将增加150万;(2)育龄妇女人数不断增长,2006-2050年将增加23万,平均每2年增加1万;(3)2006-2050年劳动适龄人口将增加65万,劳动力资源质量的高低对西藏未来经济的发展影响越来越大;(4)人口年龄结构从成年型向老年型转变,人口再生产类型由增加型过渡到稳定型进而过渡到减少型;(5)随着人口年龄结构的老化,西藏老年负担系数稳步上升,少儿负担系数缓慢下降,“人口红利”期将持续到2030年左右。

关 键 词:西藏  人口预测  老龄化
文章编号:1005-5738(2006)04-006-08
收稿时间:09 7 2006 12:00AM
修稿时间:2006-09-07

The Developing Trends of Tibet Population
Guo Zhiyi,Cao Jianyun.The Developing Trends of Tibet Population[J].Journal of Tibet University,2006,21(4):6-13,27.
Authors:Guo Zhiyi  Cao Jianyun
Institution:School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000
Abstract:Population is the subject of the social development,and harmonious society should take the harmonious population as a foundation.The realization of the harmonious development of Tibet's population depends on the recognition of the present situation of population and the trend of population development of Tibet.Based on the analysis of the reality of Tibet population,the article forecasts the development of Tibet population during 2006-2050 using the software CPPS provided by the Population Information Center of China,the results are as follows: first,Tibet population will maintain the situation of sustainable growth,and the total accretion will reach 1500 thousands in 2006-2050;Second,the number of women of child-bearing age will increase constantly,and it will increase by 230 thousands in 2006-2050,which means the average increment to be 10,000 every two years;Third,the active labour force will increase by 650 thousands in 2006-2050,so the quality of human resources will have more and more influence on the economical development of Tibet in the future;Fourth,population composition by age will be transformed from the adult type into the aged type,and population reproduction will change from the increasing form to the stable form,then to reduction form at the end;Fifth,as population composition by age is ageing,the dependency coefficient of the old people will increase steadily while that of the young people will decrease gradually,the period of 'population bonus' will last until 2030.
Keywords:Tibet  population forecasting  aging
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