应用DBR理论的网络进度计划完工工期仿真

将影响工程项目施工进度的各类风险因素视为影响工程工期中的瓶颈,将鼓-缓冲-绳子(DBR)理论中的“鼓”、“缓冲”、“绳子”3元素加入到传统的计划评估和审查技术(PERT)网络进度计划的编制中;然后,通过识别PERT网络进度计划中的瓶颈工序,制定瓶颈工序的实施计划;最后,通过衡量工序的缓冲时间,计算工程网络进度计划路径的缓冲时间及投料时间,改善工程进度网络图中的工序作业任务活动之间存在的关系及作业活动持续时间的不确定性.算例结果表明:若能够将“鼓”、“缓冲”、“绳子”3元素充分地加以配合,能够达到降低工程施工进度风险的目的.

Simulation of Completion Time of Network Schedule Using DBR Theory

The various factors affecting the construction progress of the project are regarded as the bottlenecks affecting the construction completion time. The “drum”, “buffer” and “rope” in the drum-cushion-rope(DBR)theory are added to the traditional program evaluation and review technique(PERT)network scheduling plan; through the identification of PERT network schedule in the bottleneck process,the implementation plan of the bottleneck is obtained. Finally, by measuring the buffer time of the process, and by calculating the progress of the network planning schedule buffer time as well as the feeding time, the relationship between the operational activities of the operations in the network and the uncertainty of the duration of the operational activities are improved. Case study results show that the risk of construction progress could be reduced if the “drum”, “buffer” and “rope” are well cooperated mutually.