施工现场台风风险系统动力学的预测管控体系

为了有效降低台风环境下施工现场的风险,基于系统动力学模型构建施工现场台风风险预测管控体系.通过选取台风环境下影响施工现场安全的主要风险因素,利用层次分析法(AHP)-熵权求组合权重分析风险体系中各个风险因素的权重,确定关键风险.采用系统动力学模型动态仿真施工现场台风风险值随时间的变化,并模拟确定风险控制的最佳时间,以及对比分析不同控制措施对降低风险值的效果.结果表明:管理风险是影响台风环境下施工现场的关键因素,台风前进行风险管控应重点关注管理风险;采取对应的控制措施可以有效降低施工现场风险值,并且在发布台风预警信号后,及时采取风险控制可达到较好的控制效果.

Construction Site Typhoon Risk System DynamicsPrediction Control System

In order to effectively reduce the risk of construction site under typhoon environment, the construction site typhoon risk prediction control system is constructed based on system dynamics(SD)model. By selection of the main risk factors affecting the safety of the construction site under typhoon environment, the combined weights are obtained by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weights, which analyzes the weights of each risk factor in the risk system and determines the key risks. The system dynamics model dynamically simulates the change in typhoon risk values over time at the construction site, and simulates the optimal time for risk control and compares the effects of different control measures on risk reduction. The results show that management risk is the key factor affecting the construction site under typhoon environment. The management risk control measures before typhoon can effectively reduce the risk value, and after the typhoon warning signal is issued, timely risk control can achieve better control effects.