股票价格与货币供应量关系的阶段性分析

根据股价指数的波动趋势,把股票市场分为两个不同阶段,分别采用计量经济学时间序列变量的研究方法,进行了相关性分析、协整关系分析与因果关系检验,得到了结论:股市繁荣时,为防止股市过热的紧缩性货币政策效果将会比较显著;股市萧条时,为刺激股市复苏的扩张性货币政策将可能失效.最后,提出了我国货币政策应对股价变动做出适时反应的建议.

Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Prices and Money Supply by Method of Dividing Period

Based on the price index fluctuating trend,this paper divided the stock market into two different periods,and separately used time series variables in econometric.As a research method,this paper has correlation analysis,cointegration analysis and causality test,then the following conclusions were derived : when the stock market was in prosperity,the effects of tightening monetary policy,which prevent overheating of the stock market,will be notable;when the stock market was slumping,expansionary monetary policy to stimulate the recovery of the stock market will have no effect.Finally,this paper suggested monetary policy of China should make timely reaction to the changes of the stock price.