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综合风险评价法在工程项目风险分析中的应用
引用本文:陈勇强,宋莹.综合风险评价法在工程项目风险分析中的应用[J].天津理工大学学报,2007,23(4):49-53.
作者姓名:陈勇强  宋莹
作者单位:天津大学,管理学院,天津,300072
摘    要:风险分析是风险管理的基础,只有对风险进行准确地分析,决策层才能制定并采取有效的防范措施.本文基于模糊集理论从风险大小和风险重要性二维因素变量的角度对风险因素进行模糊评价,并结合工程项目对综合风险进行分析,最后给出一个应用实例.该方法对工程项目综合风险从不同层次进行分析评价,为决策层制定风险管理计划提供了一种有效的风险分析工具.

关 键 词:模糊集  综合风险  工程项目  风险分析
文章编号:1673-095X(2007)04-0049-05
收稿时间:2006-01-11
修稿时间:2006-01-11

Application of aggregative risk evaluation method for analysis of engineering project risk
CHEN Yong-qiang,SONG Ying.Application of aggregative risk evaluation method for analysis of engineering project risk[J].Journal of Tianjin University of Technology,2007,23(4):49-53.
Authors:CHEN Yong-qiang  SONG Ying
Institution:School of Management, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract:Analyzing risk is crucial to risk management and manager will make effect measures for mitigating risk with the precise analysis.In this paper,based on the fuzzy sets theory the rate of risk factors is characterized by the fuzzy values and analyzed through two dimension variables of grades of risk and grades of importance,and then the rate of aggregative risk item is evaluated by the two fuzzy sets in the engineering project.Finally,a case study is given to illuminate the proposed method which manager can take advantage of and to the make risk management plans effectively with the rate of aggregative risk at different hierarchy.
Keywords:fuzzy sets  aggregative risk  engineering project  risk analysis
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