基于GIS和统计的民勤绿洲地下水位模拟

提出了一种GIS与统计相结合的方法,根据民勤绿洲地下水观测井的水位数据,使用地统计学分析和时间序列分析模拟了绿洲地下水1984-2015年的时空分布.结果表明:在过去的18年中,民勤绿洲的地下水位呈持续下降的趋势.若不采取有效的治理措施,至2015年绿洲内75%以上区域的地下水埋深将超过30 m.空间上,从绿洲边缘至绿洲核心地下水埋深持续下降,沉降速度不断加快.

Using GIS and statistics to simulate spatio-temporal changes in groundwater level in Minqin Oasis

An integrated method based on GIS and statistics was proposed. Geostatistics and time series analysis were used to simulate the spatio-temporal changes from 1984 to 2015, which have happened to the groundwater level in Minqin Oasis. The results show that the groundwater level has been permanently dropping over the past 18 years. Groundwater depth in more than 75% of the area will exceed 30 meters in 2015 if no effective control measures are to be taken. In addition, the spatial distribution of groundwater is associated with its location in the oasis. Prom the edge to the center of the oasis, groundwater depth is falling gradually, and the decline rate is speeding up. Therefore, compared with those common simulation methods, the integrated modelling is not only more efficient, but also produces convincing results.