| 基于贝叶斯检测的在役管道腐蚀可靠性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 薛国星,张峥.基于贝叶斯检测的在役管道腐蚀可靠性分析[J].兰州理工大学学报,2010,36(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 薛国星 张峥 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京航空航天大学,材料科学与工程学院,北京,100083;中国石油西北销售公司,甘肃,兰州,730070
2. 北京航空航天大学,材料科学与工程学院,北京,100083 |
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| 基金项目： | “十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAK02B02-07) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对在役油气管道腐蚀失效的现状,建立基于Pcorrc承载能力模型的管道可靠性计算方法,利用蒙特卡洛计算方法计算不同时期管道腐蚀可靠性.引入贝叶斯方法建立在役管道腐蚀检测可靠性分析模型,通过计算给出不同检测方法的检测周期,经计算管道在运行至20~40年内需要重点检测维护,在有效检测条件下,管道的再检测周期为10年左右.该方法对管道腐蚀检测方法与检测周期的选择具有重要意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 腐蚀失效 在役管道 可靠性 贝叶斯方法 |
Reliability analysis of corrosion detection of pipeline in service pipeline based on Bayesian approach |
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| XUE Guo-xing,ZHANG Zheng.Reliability analysis of corrosion detection of pipeline in service pipeline based on Bayesian approach[J].Journal of Lanzhou University of Technology,2010,36(1). |
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| Authors: | XUE Guo-xing ZHANG Zheng |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Material Science and Engineering;Beijing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics;Beijing 100083;China;2.Petrochina Northwest Marketing Company;Lanzhou 730070;China |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at situation of corrosion failure of oil-gas pipelines in service,a reliability calculation method was presented based on Pcorrc model of bearing capacity.By means of Monte-Carlo method,the corrosion reliability of pipelines at different running stages was calculated.Corrosion detection reliability model was established by referencing the Bayesian approach and the detection cycle was evaluated for different detection methods.It was indicated by reliability evaluation that the pipelines running after 2... |
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| Keywords: | corrosion failure pipeline in service reliability Bayesian approach |
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