2000年—2017年中国PM2.5污染的健康影响及经济损失时空分布模式

当今环境下，大气污染是危害人体健康的主要威胁之一，对包括PM2.5在内的细颗粒物污染造成的人群健康影响和经济损失的估算是目前研究的热点之一.该研究采用人口、PM2.5污染浓度等基础数据以及流行病学等相关领域的研究结果，将全国区域划分为5 km×5 km的精细格网，根据暴露—反应关系函数及统计生命价值法(VSL)、疾病成本法(COI)计算方法，进行2000年—2017年长时间范围内全国PM2.5污染的健康经济效应动态评估与精细化制图，并采用推土机距离(EMD)方法定量评价不同年份的健康影响及经济损失的空间分布差异性.结果显示，从空间分布格局来看，我国平均每年37.61%的区域存在PM2.5污染的健康影响及经济损失，健康影响和经济损失的分布区域表现出从东南和西北地区向西南和东北地区递减的格局.此外，华北、华中、华东三区域的健康损失平均每年占比74.21%，经济损失平均每年占比80.78%.从时间尺度来看，历年健康影响变化大致可分为两个阶段，2000年—2013年波动增长，2013年—2016年逐渐下降；历年经济损失变化则呈波动上升趋势.此外，局部地区的健康影响和经济损失的空间分布变化具有阶段性.

Spatial-temporal analysis of PM2.5-related health impact and economic losses in China from 2000 to 2017

Nowadays， air pollution is one of the main threats to human health， and the assessment of health impact and economic losses caused by fine particles-related pollution， including PM2.5， is one of the current research hotspots. Based on population， PM2.5 exposure concentration data and the results of epidemiological exposure-response in existing studies， the PM2.5-related health impact and economic losses from 2000 to 2017 in China was assessed and visualized using Value of Statistical Life and Cost of Illness methods in 5 km × 5 km resolution. Furthermore， the Earth Mover's Distance methods was applied to quantify the spatial similarities and differences of spatial distribution patterns of health impact and economic losses in different years. The results show that from the perspective of the spatial distribution， there is an average of 37.61% of the regions in China suffering from PM2.5-related health impact and economic losses， and the spatial distribution of PM2.5-related health impact and economic losses indicates a decreasing pattern from southeast and northwest regions to southwest and northeast. In addition， the average annual health losses and economic losses of North China， Central China， and East China accounted for 74.21% and 80.78% per year. From the perspective of time scale， the changes of health impact over the years is abled to be roughly divided into two stages fluctuation growth from 2000 to 2013， and the gradual decline from 2013 to 2016. Changes of economic losses over the years have shown a fluctuation upward trend. In addition， the spatial distribution changes of health impact and economic losses in some areas are periodic.