技术进步对关键矿产供应影响的实证研究——以镍为例

技术进步是影响关键矿产可持续供应的重要因素，但许多学者忽略了不同类别技术进步的作用与技术进步的扩散效应.该文以战略性关键矿产——镍为研究对象，结合ARIMAX模型，研究了三种技术进步与经济、地质、需求等因素对于关键矿产供应的影响.实证结果表明：1)三种技术进步专利均会对关键矿产供应产生显著影响，其中，成本降低型专利的影响最大，效率提升型专利影响次之，安全提高型专利影响最小.2)技术进步、价格与经济发展对矿产供应的影响均有扩散效应，储量与需求对矿产供应的影响没有扩散效应.3)往年的矿石产量也是影响矿产供应的关键因素之一.根据上述实证结果，该文对中国未来矿产资源产业与矿产开发提出了针对性的政策建议.

Empirical study on the impact of technological progress on the supply of key minerals： taking nickel as a case

Technological progress is an important factor affecting the sustainable supply of key minerals， but many scholars have overlooked the role of different types of technological progress and the diffusion effect of technological progress. Focusing on the supply security of strategic key minerals， the impact of three technological progress and control variables were investigated including economy， geology and demand on the supply of key minerals， in conjunction with ARIMAX model. The results are as follows. 1) All three types of technological progress patents had a significant impact on the supply of key minerals， with cost-reducing patents having the largest impact， followed by efficiency-enhancing patents， and safety-enhancing patents having the least impact. 2) Technological progress， prices， and economic development all had a diffusion effect on the mineral supply， while reserves and demand had no diffusion effect on mineral supply. 3) Ore production in previous years has also been one of the key factors affecting mineral supply. According to the above empirical results， targeted policy recommendations were put forward for China's future mineral resource industry and mineral exploitation.