基于GIS和GM的土地利用空间格局和动态预测情景分析——以宜都市为例

应用GIS技术和景观生态学方法对湖北省宜都市2001年土地利用空间格局情景进行了研究，并结合1999年、2000年、2002年、2003年的土地利用变更调查数据，运用拓广的灰色动态预测模型预测2010年、2015年土地利用结构的变化趋势．研究结果表明：1）地处平原区几个乡镇的景观指数如景观偏离度、多样性、均匀度、破碎度大，优势度小，山地区则相反；2）拓广的GM模型提高了预测精度，预测结果表明研究区耕地将迅速减少，取而代之的是园地、林地和交通用地。其它类型用地变化不大．研究结果对制定科学合理的土地利用规划和动态管理具有重要意义．

Scenario analysis of land use type pattern and dynamic prediction by GIS and GM——a case of Yidou city

By using GIS and the method of landscape ecology,land use type pattern in 2001 of Yidou County,Hubei Province are studied.At the same time,tendencies of land use structure in 2010,2015 are predicted by linking land use changing survey data for 1999,2000,2002,2003 and using general grey dynamic model.The result shows: 1)the value of the degree of landscape departure,diversity index,evenness,fragmentation of many towns located plain region are bigger than the value of the mountainous district;dominance contrarily.2)general GM has higher precision than the original one.The prediction results show that the area of cultivated land will rapidly decrease and replace by garden,forestland,traffic land,other land use type is hardly change.It's a great importance to draw scientific and reasonable land use layout and dynamic management.