基于SEIR模型的中国山东省与韩国COVID-19疫情早期传播特征比较分析

2019年底爆发的新冠肺炎疫情(COVID-19)在世界大部分国家和地区蔓延，促使各国政府出台了不同程度的管控措施.不同于各种针对疫情变化的预测模型，该文通过使用经典SEIR仓室模型对COVID-19在中国山东省、韩国两地的传播动力学特征开展了回溯分析，对比并讨论了这两个样本在暴露人群数量、感染人数、确诊人数及治愈率上的显著差异.在此基础上，该文通过对比中国山东省、韩国的首例防控措施公告，重点探讨了在疫情早期采取严格、快速的物理疏离和保持高效的医疗救治对阻断COVID-19传播的积极意义.

Comparative analysis of the early transmission characteristics of COVID-19 epidemic between Shandong Province in China and South Korea based on the SEIR model

Outbreaking at the end of 2019， the new coronary pneumonia epidemic (COVID-19) has spread in most countries and regions of the world， prompting governments of various countries to introduce different levels of control measures. Different from various prediction models for epidemic changes， the classic SEIR model was used to carry out a retrospective analysis forthe propagation dynamics of COVID-19 in Shandong Province of China and South Korea. The significant differences between Shandong Province of China and South Korea were then compared and discussed for their exposed populations， infection numbers， diagnose numbers and cure rates. On this basis， by comparing the announcements of the first prevention and control measures in Shandong Province of China and South Korea， the positive significances were discussedto keep strict and rapid physical isolation and maintain efficient medical treatment in the early stage of the epidemic to interrupt the spread of COVID-19.