高填石路堤沉降变权重组合预测方法研究

高填石路堤的沉降变形过程一般为从填石体施工期的瞬时变形到进一步的蠕变变形,利用沉降资料进行路堤沉降预测的常用模型可较好地反映其沉降变化规律及发展趋势,但尚存在一定的局限性为了尽可能多地利用全部有用信息,利用"组合预测"思想,提出一种对多种常用预测模型进行变权重组合预测的方法,从而可根据有限的沉降实测数据达到预测路基沉降发展的目的,且工程实例分析表明,双曲线、指数曲线及时间平方根曲线的变权重组合能较好地预测高填石路堤的发展规律,具有明显的优越性.图5,表3,参8.

Study on variable-weight combined forecasting method of the settlement in high rock-filled embankment

The deformation course of high rock-filled embankment is generally from sudden deformation in construction period to subsequent creep deformation. The normal model for embankment settlement forecasting by using of settlement data can fit well its settlement variational regularity and development trend. But certain limitation still exists. In order to make full use of the useful information as much as possible, with the idea of combined prediction, a variable-weight combined of normal model forecasting method has been put forward, which can forecast the embankment settlement development by using limited measured settlement data. The analysis of engineering practice indicates that the variable-weight combined of hyperbola, exponential curve and time square root curve can forecast well the development regularity of high rock-filled embankment, with obvious advantages.Sfigs.,3tabs.,Srefs.