海南岛台风灾害综合危险评价

为更好地揭示海南岛台风灾害危险分布规律,耦合孕灾环境敏感和致灾因子危险两方面因素,利用海南岛1980-2019年台风数据,运用组合权重法,构建海南岛台风灾害综合危险评价模型,并按10年间隔划分为4个年代,得到海南岛不同时期台风灾害综合危险分区.结果 表明:①孕灾环境敏感程度在空间上具有从东部、西南部沿海向内陆逐渐降低趋势,以中低敏感区为主,面积占比30.88％,高敏感区面积1495.02 km2,占比为4.42％;②致灾危险程度随时间推移呈现上升一下降—上升变化趋势,空间分布具有从沿海向内陆呈逐级递减趋势特征;2001-2009年致灾因子危险程度低的范围最广,面积为25624.85 km2,占比达75.7％;2010-2019年致灾因子危险程度高的范围最广,面积占比达34.78％;③台风灾害综合危险随时间变化呈现下降—升高趋势,空间上均具有从东北部、西南部沿海向中部内陆和西北部沿海降低特征;2001-2009年综合危险指数最低,面积占比为29.61％;2010-2019年代综合危险指数最高,面积占比达42.08％;④台风灾害综合危险高值区主要分布东部、西南部沿海的文昌、陵水等6市县;中值区分布在沿海、内陆的万宁、保亭等6市县;低值区则分布在中部内陆至西北部的五指山、临高等6市县.海南岛台风灾害随时间变化具有较复杂的演变规律,随着社会经济的发展,防治台风灾害的任务将更艰巨.

Comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disaster in Hainan Island

In order to better reveal the distribution law of typhoon disaster risk in Hainan Island, coupled with the risk factors of disaster pregnant environment and disaster causing factors, the comprehensive risk assessment model of typhoon disaster in Hainan Island was constructed by using typhoon data from 1980 to 2019 in Hainan Island, and the comprehensive risk assessment model was divided into 4 years according to 10-year interval.The results show that:(1) The spatial sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment has a decreasing trend from the eastern and southwestern coastal areas to the inland.Most of them are medium and low sensitive areas, accounting for 30.88% of the total area, and the high sensitive areas are 1495.02km², accounting for 4.42%.(2)The results show that the hazard degree of disaster is increasing, decreasing and increasing with time, and the spatial distribution is decreasing gradually from coastal to inland.From 2000 to 2009, the area with low risk degree of disaster causing factors was the widest, with an area of 25624.85km², accounting for 75.7%. From 2010 to 2019, the scope with high risk degree of disaster causing factors was the widest, accounting for 34.78% of the total area.(3)The comprehensive risk of typhoon disaster shows a decreasing - increasing trend with time, and it has the characteristics of decreasing from the northeast and southwest coastal areas to the central inland and northwest coastal areas.From 2000 to 2009,the comprehensive risk index was the lowest, accounting for 29.61%.From 2010 to 2019, the comprehensive risk index was the highest, accounting for 42.08%.(4)The high value areas of comprehensive risk of typhoon disasters are mainly distributed in Wenchang and Lingshui in the East and southwest coastal areas; the median areas are distributed in 6 cities and counties such as Wanning and Baoting along the coast and inland; the low value areas are distributed in the six cities and counties from the central inland to the northwest, such as Wuzhishan and Lingao.With the development of social economy, the task of preventing and controlling typhoon disasters will be more arduous.