钢铁企业电力负荷预测建模研究

针对钢铁企业负荷波动特点,用分解及分类建模的思想,构造负荷预测模型。综合考虑各用电环节的用电特点、工况和工艺信息,分类建立模型,通过各用电环节预测结果叠加获取总负荷预测值。该模型运用静态预测和动态预测相结合的方法,在动态预测过程中充分考虑到实时工艺节奏和动态工况信息,使模型具有更好的适应性。实例表明,该预测模型能获得良好的预测效果。

Electricity load forecasting modeling study In iron and steel enterprises

Aiming at the characteristics of load fluctuation in iron and steel enterprises, This paper using a kind of decomposition and classification modeling thought to construct load forecasting model. Considering each link electricity load characteristics, production condition information ,technological characteristics, it establish a classification model which get the total predictive value by superimposing on each link forecast results. The model uses the combination of static prediction and dynamic prediction, in the dynamic forecasting process it fully takes into account the real-time production rhythm and dynamic conditions information, so that the model has better adaptability. The example shows that the prediction model can obtain good prediction effect.