基于贝叶斯修正IFAHP和灰色模糊综合评判的绝缘子污秽评估

绝缘子状态评估中指标信息兼具模糊、随机和灰色性特点。针对当前评估方法较少考虑到参量因素灰色性的问题,基于贝叶斯修正IFAHP法并结合灰色模糊理论和灰云模型提出一种绝缘子污秽状态的灰色模糊综合评判模型。该模型首次引入IFAHP和直觉模糊熵理论以更为科学合理地确定评判因素权重集,并基于贝叶斯公式建立主观权重的优化模型以实现指标的二阶段赋权;同时,利用灰云模型求得评判指标对应各状态等级的关联度并作为评判矩阵模部,再以灰部兼顾评判信息的灰性,进而对建立的评判矩阵综合处理。实例对比表明,贝叶斯修正IFAHP法确定的权重集更为合理适用,基于灰色模糊评判的结果也更贴近实际情况。

Grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of contamination state for insulators based on IFAHP with Bayesian modified method

The Index information in insulator condition evaluation has the characteristics of fuzziness, randomness and greyness. In view of the fact that the current evaluation methods seldom consider the greyness of index information, a grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of contamination state for insulators is proposed based on IFAHP with Bayesian modified method by combining grey fuzzy theory and grey cloud model. In the proposed method, IFAHP method and intuitionistic fuzzy entropy theory are introduced for the first time to determine the weight set of evaluation factors more scientifically and suitably, and optimization model of subjective weight is established based on Bayesian formula to realize two-stage weighting of index. Moreover, the grey cloud model is used to obtain the correlation degree of each state level of indexes, which is act as the module part of the judgment matrix. And the grey part of matrix is use to take into account the grey characteristic of evaluation information, and then the established evaluation matrix is comprehensively processed. Finally, the analysis and comparison of cases show that the weight set determined by IFAHP with Bayesian modified method is more reasonable and applicable, and the result based on grey fuzzy evaluation is closer to the actual situation.