| 基于SEIR模型的大面积航班延误传播 |
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| 引用本文： | 张兆宁,张佳.基于SEIR模型的大面积航班延误传播[J].科学技术与工程,2020,20(8):3356-3362. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张兆宁 张佳 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300;中国民航大学空中交通管理学院,天津300300 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究大面积航班延误在机场间传播的规律,通过构建空中交通网络,并基于SEIR(susceptible-explored-infected-recovered)模型的基本思想,分析大面积航班延误发生时节点状态的变化规律,建立大面积航班延误传播模型,并进一步讨论模型中各个参数变化对航班延误传播的影响。算例分析表明,建立的模型可以用来描述大面积航班延误传播特性。
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| 关 键 词： | 大面积航班延误 空中交通网络 SEIR模型 传播规律 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/7/3 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/12/13 0:00:00 |
Study on Large-scale Flight Delays Propagation Based on SEIR Model |
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| Zhang Zhaoning,Zhang Jia.Study on Large-scale Flight Delays Propagation Based on SEIR Model[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(8):3356-3362. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Zhaoning Zhang Jia |
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| Institution: | Air Traffic Management Institute, Civil Aviation University of China,Air Traffic Management Institute, Civil Aviation University of China |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the law of spreading between airports of large-scale flight delays, this paper first builds the air traffic network, based on the basic idea of SEIR model, and establishes the large-area flight delay communication model by analyzing the change law of node state when large-area flight delay occurs. The effect of various parameter changes in the model on the spread of flight delays is discussed. The study shows that the model can be used to describe the propagation characteristics of large area flight delays. |
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| Keywords: | large-area flight delays air traffic network SEIR model propagation law |
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