一种桥梁损伤的趋势预测新方法

在用多层次模糊综合评判模型对桥梁损伤进行评估时，由于其基于最大隶属度原则而建立，同时由于桥梁评估等级的隶属函数是非连续函数；因此，评估结果不能很好地反映桥梁损伤的发展趋势，现将贴近度分析法应用于传统的桥梁评估的多层次综合评判模型中，并对贴近度分析法在模糊综合评判模型中的施加位置进行了研究。研究表明，将贴近度施加于传统的多层次模糊综合评判的“第三层次（构件层次）”和“第二层次（子结构层次）”后，其评估结果能够更加合理和全面地反映桥梁损伤的发展趋势。给桥梁评估提供了一种新的趋势预测方法。

New Tend-based Forecasting for the Bridge's Damage

When using multilayer vague synthesizes evaluation model to judge bridge damage, because it is based on the principle of the biggest degree of membership and the membership function of bridge assessment grade is not continuous, assessment-result can not reflect bridge's tendency of development. Closing Degree Method is used in multilayer vague synthesizes evaluation model, and the position in the multilayer vague synthesizes evaluation model for Closing Degree method to exert is studied. The assessment-result shows, when exert Closing Degree Method to 3th level (component level) and second level(substructure level)of multilayer vague synthesizes-evaluation model ,its assessment-result can be more reasonable and reflect bridge damage's developing tendency comprehensively. Therefore, a new kind of tendency forecast method for bridge evaluation is offered.