基于航空公司的航班计划优化与延误预测

随着中国民航业的快速发展,航班延误情况一直较为严重.建立了航班计划优化模型,将软备份运力分配在飞行时间和过站时间中,提高了航班的正常率、起飞的准点率和航班串的鲁棒性;为了进一步提高航班的正常率,追踪航班串中各航班的过站机场和离场时间,用加权马尔科夫链预测处在该时间段的过站机场的延误状态,并针对不同的延误状态作出相应的延误预警,提高了航班运营的可靠性.

Flight Plan Optimization and Delay Prediction Based on Airlines

With the rapid development of civil aviation industry,the problem of flight delays have been more serious.In this paper,a flight planning optimization mode is established to improves the rate of flight regularity , the punctuality of take-off and the robustness of flight chain through assigning slack time in the flight and turnaround.In order to further improve the rate of flight regularity ,this paper tracks the turnaround airport and departure time of each flight in the flight chain,using a weighted Markov chain to predict the delay status of the turnaround airport at that time and makes delay warnings for different delay states, which improves the reliability of the flight plan.