| 大型飞机研制项目风险分布的极大熵模型研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁文峰.大型飞机研制项目风险分布的极大熵模型研究[J].科学技术与工程,2011,11(34):8546-8551. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁文峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016;中国商用飞机有限责任公司,上海200120
2. 南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京,210016 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目） |
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| 摘 要： | 大型飞机的研制过程面临着各种动态风险。认识这些风险的分布规律,是应对风险的重要前提。针对大型飞机研制风险,主要包括环境风险、技术风险和管理风险三大类,建立了大型飞机研制项目风险的分布的极大熵模型,并对某型号飞机研制项目风险分布进行了实证研究。
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| 关 键 词： | 大型飞机 研制项目风险 极大熵 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/3/2011 6:38:14 PM |
| 修稿时间： | 9/8/2011 1:28:11 PM |
The maximum entropy model of the probability distribution of risk in large airplane R&D project |
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| Yuan Wenfeng.The maximum entropy model of the probability distribution of risk in large airplane R&D project[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2011,11(34):8546-8551. |
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| Authors: | Yuan Wenfeng |
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| Institution: | 1 (College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics1, Nanjing 210016,P.R.China;Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China,LTD.2,Shanghai 200120,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | The R&D project of large airplane face various risks. Recognizing the distribution of these risks is an important foundation to cope with the risks. The article focuses on large airplane R&D project risk analysis. The risks in large airplane R&D project include environmental risk, technological risk and management risk. The maximum entropy model of the probability distribution of the risks in large airplane R&D project is created. And it is used to study the probability distribution of the risk occurrence in an aircraft project. |
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| Keywords: | Large airplanes Risk in R&D project Maximum entropy |
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