首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      

近48年长江源区降水时空变化特征分析
引用本文:周明圆,刘君龙,许继军,洪晓峰,袁喆.近48年长江源区降水时空变化特征分析[J].科学技术与工程,2020,20(2):474-480.
作者姓名:周明圆  刘君龙  许继军  洪晓峰  袁喆
作者单位:长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010;长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010;长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010;长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010;长江水利委员会长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目),国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)
摘    要:基于1966~2013年长江源区及周边在内7个气象站点的逐日降水资料,采用降水倾向率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析及Hurst指数法等方法,分析了长江源区近48年来降水量时间序列空间分布特征、年际和年内变化趋势以及其周期性变化特征,并对降水未来的演变趋势进行了预测。分析结果表明:(1) 长江源区降水量存在明显的空间变化差异,总体分布趋势为由东南向西北递减;(2) 近48年来长江源区降水量呈现较为明显的增加趋势,增加速率为17 mm/10a,多年平均降水量为351.5 mm;(3) 长江源区降水量年内分配极不均匀,主要集中在汛期,约占全年总降水量的89.6%,而非汛期降水量仅占10.4%,且降水量具有较明显的季节差异,夏季降水最大,秋季次之,其次是春季,冬季降水量最小;(4) 长江源区降水量变化存在28 a左右的第一主周期,第二、三、四主周期分别为21 a、12 a和5 a;(5) 长江源区各气象站点及全流域的Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明降水量未来趋势与过去一致,即其未来仍将延续降水量增加的变化趋势。

关 键 词:长江源区  降水  降水倾向率  Mann-Kendall趋势检验  Morlet小波分析  Hurst指数
收稿时间:2019/5/14 0:00:00
修稿时间:2019/8/16 0:00:00

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in the Source Area of the Yangtze River in Recent 48 Years
Zhou Mingyuan,Liu Junlong,Xu jijun,Hong Xiaofeng,Yuan Zhe.Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Precipitation in the Source Area of the Yangtze River in Recent 48 Years[J].Science Technology and Engineering,2020,20(2):474-480.
Authors:Zhou Mingyuan  Liu Junlong  Xu jijun  Hong Xiaofeng  Yuan Zhe
Institution:Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,,Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Changjiang River Scientific Research Inst. of Changjiang Water Resources Commission
Abstract:Based on the daily precipitation data of seven meteorological stations in the source area of the Yangtze River from 1966 to 2013, using precipitation tendency rate, Mann-Kendall trend test, Morlet wavelet analysis and Hurst index method, the spatial distribution characteristics, inter-annual and intra-annual variation trends and their periodic changes of precipitation time series in the source area of the Yangtze River in recent 48 years were analyzed, and the future precipitation was projected. The results showe that: (1) there are obvious spatial variations in precipitation in the source area of the Yangtze River, and the overall distribution trend is decreasing from southeast to northwest; (2) precipitation in the source area of the Yangtze River has shown an obvious increasing trend in recent 48 years, with an increase rate of 17 mm/10a and an average annual precipitation of 351.5 m; (3) precipitation distribution in the source area of the Yangtze River is extremely uneven, mainly concentrated in the flood season. About 89.6% of the total annual precipitation, but only 10.4% of the non-flood season precipitation, and precipitation has obvious seasonal differences, summer precipitation is the largest, autumn followed by spring, winter precipitation is the smallest; (4) precipitation changes in the source area of the Yangtze River have the first main cycle of about 28 years, the second, third and fourth main cycles are 21 a, 12 a and 5 a respectively; (5) the Hurst index of each meteorological station and the whole basin in the source area of the Yangtze River is greater than 0.5, indicating that the future trend of precipitation is consistent with the past, that is, its future will continue to change the trend of increasing precipitation.
Keywords:source area of the Yangtze River    precipitation    precipitation tendency rate    Mann-Kendall trend test    Morlet wavelet analysis    Hurst index
本文献已被 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《科学技术与工程》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《科学技术与工程》下载免费的PDF全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号