石羊河流域径流变化规律和趋势分析

根据石羊河八大河流径流量数据和径流极值比分析该流域径流变化规律。利用Mann-Kendall检验法分析石洋河流域径流变化的趋势;并通过数学建模预测未来径流演变的趋势。结果表明:南营的丰枯变化程度最剧烈,黄羊河次之,沙沟寺(东大河)的变化最趋向于缓和;由西向东,石羊河流域的各河流年径流的补给形式由冰雪和降水正逐步过渡到纯降水;至20世纪50年代以来,石羊河流域径流量总体上呈现减少的趋势;未来13年石羊河流域的出山径流总流量仍将会减少。

The runoff change rule and trend analysis ofShiyang River Basin

In this article, the runoff change rule of Shiyang River Basin is analyzed according to the runoff data and runoff extreme ratio of the eight big rivers in this basin, test method of Mann-Kendall is used to analyze the trends of runoff change of Shiyang River Basin, and by establishing a mathematical model to predict the future runoff trend. The results show that: the high and low runoff change of Nanying is the most intense, Huangyang River following, and Shagousi (the east great river) is the most relaxative; from west to east, the annual runoff supply forms of each river in Shiyang River Basin are gradually making transition from snow and precipitation to pure precipitation.On the whole, the runoff of Shiyang River Basin has a negative trend since the 1950s, the runoff which is out of the mountains in Shiyang River Basin will reduce in the next 13 years.