电力减排对华东空气质量影响的数值模拟研究

我国经济正处在高速发展时期，电力需求将持续增长，但以燃煤为主的电力工业带来的能源消耗和环境污染问题也不容忽视。为了进一步了解电力排放对华东空气质量的影响，本文应用中尺度大气动力-化学耦合模式WRF-Chem针对两种不同的电厂减排情景模拟分析了冬季华东地区主要污染物浓度变化量和分布情况，得到以下结论：(1)模式能较好模拟华东主要大气污染物的时间变化规律和空间分布特征;(2)华东冬季主要大气污染物浓度高值区为山东西部、安徽北部及长三角地区，冬季大气环流条件不利近地面污染物扩散，易造成污染物堆积;(3) 减排的敏感性试验表明：电厂排放减半时华东大部地区SO2、NO2的浓度降低约10~30%，关闭时约30~50%；PM2.5和PM10在江西和福建沿海一带减少较多，电厂排放减半时约5%，关闭时约10%；CO基本不受电厂减排影响，仅降低1~2%；而O3在电厂排放减半或关闭时在华东大部地区增加30%以上。

Numerical Simulation on the Effect of Power Plant Emission Reduction on Air Quality in East China

China''s economy is now under rapid development and electricity demand continues to grow, however, the energy consumption and environmental pollution problems by coal-based power industry cannot be ignored. In order to further understand the effect of power plant emission on air quality in East China, the mesoscale atmospheric-dynamic chemical coupling model WRF-Chem was applied to investigate the change of pollutant concentration and distribution in East China with two different power plant emission reduction conditions. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The model can simulate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the main air pollutants in East China. (2) The high concentration areas of the main atmospheric pollutants in East China are in western Shandong, northern Anhui and Yangtze River Delta, the atmospheric circulation conditions in winter are adverse to the diffusion of atmospheric pollutants and easily lead to the accumulation. (3) emission reduction tests show that: SO2, NO2 concentration in most parts of East China decreased by about 10 ~30% when power plant emissions halved, about 30 ~ 50% when power plant emission shut down ; PM2.5 and PM10 in Jiangxi and Fujian coastal areas decrease by around 5% when power plant emission halved, around 10% when power plant shut down; the emission reduction of power plant has a negligible effect on CO which decreases only 1~2%;but O3 in most parts of East China increases by more than 30% when power plant emission halved or closed .However, the two tests in this paper that assume power plants emission reduction halved or closed are extreme cases, and then we need to quantify the amount and distribution of air pollutants according to the actual situation of power plant emission reduction in the future.