考虑不确定因素的多模式城市交通网络路径决策

由于时间的波动性与突发事件的影响,多模式城市交通网络的运行时常伴随着各种不确定性情况的发生。通过考虑多模式交通网络的出行特点与交通网络不同的运行状态,建立了基于马尔可夫决策过程的多模式交通网络的路线决策模型与算法,所提方法应用到北京市多模式城市交通网络。结果显示,不同出发时间需要不同的路径决策以达到最小出行时间。基于马尔可夫决策过程的路径决策方法的有效性得到验证,它可以为出行者路线选择提供更合理的指示。

Multi-modal Urban Transportation Network Route Decision Based on Uncertainties

Due to the volatility of time and the impact of emergencies, the operation of multi-modal urban transportation network is often accompanied with various uncertainties. Combined with the travel characteristics and different states of multi-modal transportation network, the route decision model and algorithm based on Markov decision process are established, and the proposed method is applied to the multi-modal transportation network in Beijing. The results show that different departure times require different route decisions in order to achieve the minimize travel time. The effectiveness of the proposed method based on Markov decision process is verified and it can provide more reasonable indications for the route decision of the traveler.