考虑反凝析的边水凝析气藏见水时间预测新方法

边水凝析气藏开发过程中，地层压力下降至露点压力后，凝析油析出。以往气井见水时间预测通常忽略了凝析油析出的影响，因此造成预测结果与实际结果有较大差异。为了更好地开发边水凝析气藏，准确预测见水时间，需考虑凝析油影响。基于多孔介质流体质点渗流规律，考虑反凝析油的影响，推导了近似直线供给边界的边水凝析气藏见水时间预测新公式。实例应用表明对边水凝析气藏见水时间预测时必须考虑凝析油的影响。预测新公式为深入研究边水推进机理，控制见水时间提供了理论依据，对边水凝析气藏生产管理具有重要的指导意义。

A novel approach to predict water breakthrough time in gas condensate reservoir with edge water considering retrograde condensation

During the development of gas condensate reservoirs, the condensate oil is separated due to reservoir pressure drops to the dew point pressure. The prediction for gas water breakthrough time, which usually ignores the impact of precipitation of condensate oil, results in significant difference between prediction and realistic results. In order to better develop edge water condensate gas reservoirs and accurately predict the water breakthrough time, impact from condensate oil should be considered. Therefore, the prediction formula of the water breakthrough time is derived based on fluid flow in porous media, considering the impact of anti-condensate. Case study demonstrates that the impact of condensate oil must be considered. When forecasting the water breakthrough time and furthering research about the forward edge water mechanism, the derived formula is valid, which could also provide guidance for management of edge water gas condensate reservoirs.