基于灰色理论的武汉市全社会固定资产投资预测

根据武汉市2001—2010年固定资产投资数据,利用灰色预测理论对未来几年的投资进行预测。文章在分析灰色理论的基础上,结合实际情况构建GM(1,1)预测模型,并用于对武汉市2001—2010年全社会固定资产投资进行拟合,同时为保证模型预测的高精度,引入了新陈代谢思想,即加入新数据的同时丢弃较"老"的数据,使拟合精度进一步提高。通过对模拟投资值与实际投资值进行比较,并且对模型精度进行检验,证实该预测模型具有较高的预测精度,其精度等级为"好",可用于对武汉市未来几年全社会固定资产投资进行预测,预测结果具有一定的参考价值。

Forecast the Total Investment in Fixed Assets of Wuhan Based on the Grey Theory

According to the total investment in fixed assets of Wuhan from 2001 to 2010 the investment in the next few years is forecasted by the grey theory.On the base of analysing the grey theory,the GM(1,1) forecast model is constructed combining the practical situation.Then this forecast model is used to fit the total investment in fixed assets of Wuhan from 2001 to 2010.At the same time,in order to ensure the high-accuracy of forecast model,the metabolism thought is introduced into the model,which means that abandon the old data when putting in the new data.In this way,the accuracy of fitting has been improved.Through comparing the simulation value and actual value of the investment and testing the accuracy of forecast model,it can be confirmed that the forecast model has a high-accuracy and its accuracy grade is "good".So it can be used to forecast the total investment in fixed assets of Wuhan in the next few years and the forecast result has some reference value.