基于因素-时间变权模型的公路隧道群运营期安全性评价研究

公路隧道群运营期安全保障工程相较于单体隧道更为复杂,面临的大量不确定性和安全风险直接威胁着隧道安全运营。从“人-车-隧道-交通环境-管理”五个要素构建运营安全评价因子集,结合变权理论对开展动态评价研究,形成因素-时间变权方法的双动态权重计算模型以体现指标的时变特点,结合模糊综合评价模型进行等级评价,以某高速隧道群开展评价工作。通过上述研究表明：因素-时间变权模型对于运营期的隧道群安全评价指标的权重控制具有极强的针对性,能很好的弥补常规评价方法中对隧道运营期安全因时变性的特点造成的评价结果失真的缺点；变权理论的利用为开展风险的动态管控提供了重要的理论支撑。

Highway tunnel group in operation period based on factor - time variable weight model

Compared with single tunnel, the safety guarantee project of highway tunnel group in operation period is more complicated, which is directly threatened by a large number of uncertainties and safety risks. From "people - car - tunnel traffic environment - management" five elements of building operation safety assessment for subset, combined with the variable weight theory to research on the dynamic evaluation, form factor - time double dynamic weight calculation model of variable weight method to reflect the time-varying characteristics of index, combining with rank evaluation, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to a highway tunnel group to carry out the evaluation work. Through the above research, it is shown that: the factor-time variable weight model is highly targeted for the weight control of tunnel group safety evaluation index in operation period, and can make up for the distortion of evaluation results caused by the time-varying characteristics of tunnel safety in operation period in conventional evaluation methods. The use of variable weight theory provides an important theoretical support for developing dynamic risk management and control.