基于孤石全生命周期的危险性评价

近年来,孤石滚落灾害越发受到关注,而对其危险性定量评价的相关研究较少。一方面,孤石具有数量多、规模大、形状不一的特点,对孤石群的稳定性判定是一个问题;另一方面,对孤石影响区域的危险性评价是难点。因此以广州市白云山原始森林公园为研究对象,对此区域开展孤石危险性评价。通过孤石稳定性定性定量综合判断+失稳孤石威胁范围精准划分的方法,考虑多评价因子对研究区危险性进行综合评价。利用熵权法计算各评价因子的权重,基于高精度数字高程模型(digital elevation model, DEM)、地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)软件和岩石崩落分析(rockfall analysis, RA)软件对研究区危险性等级进行划分,将白云山原始森林公园滚石危险范围划分为4个等级：极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区和低危险区。研究成果提出了一套可为其他区域孤石滚落灾害危险区划参考的系统性评价方法。

Risk assessment based on the full life cycle of boulders

In recent years, more and more attention has been paid to boulder rolling disasters, but there are few related studies on the quantitative evaluation of its risk. First of all, boulders are characterized by large quantity, large scale and different shapes. Therefore, the stability determination of the boulders is a difficult problem; Another difficulty is the division of the areas affected by the boulders. This paper takes Baiyunshan Primitive Forest Park in Guangzhou as the research object. The risk assessment of boulders is carried out in this area. Through the method of " comprehensive judgment of stability + accurate division of the threat range of unstable boulders", multiple evaluation factors were considered to evaluate the risk of the study area. The entropy weight method is used to calculate the weight of each evaluation factor. Through the high precision DEM and GIS software and RA model was carried out on the level of risk in the study area. The risk zone of the study area was classified into four levels: extremely high, high, medium and low risk. The research results put forward a set of systematic evaluation methods which can be used for the risk zoning of rock fall disaster in other regions.