基于裕量与不确定性量化的系统可靠性评估

裕量与不确定性量化(quantification of margins and uncertainties,简称QMU)是一种新发展起来的可靠性认证和评估方法。从基本思想、表征、基本方法和工作流程这四个方面,研究了基于QMU的可靠性评估技术架构。讨论了观测清单的层次性、建立观测清单的基本步骤及涉及的相关技术;并根据性能参数的特点提出了四种性能通道建立方法。最后较系统地阐述了基于概率盒的不确定性量化方法、证据框架下的多源融合技术、基于数值模拟的不确定性量化方法等。

System Reliability Assessment Based on QMU

Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) is a new developed method of reliability analysis and evaluation. In this paper, the technical architecture of system reliability assessment is built on QMU from those aspects of basic idea, expression, methods and operation flow. Next, the hierarchy property of watch list, primary steps and some related technologies of setting up watch list are presented. Four ways of establishing performance gate are provided according to the varieties of performance parameters. Finally, this paper systematically expounds the uncertainty quantification method based on probability boxes, multi-source uncertainties synthesizing technology under the framework of evidence, uncertainty quantification of numerical simulation for reliability analysis, etc.