基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价研究

加强钻井井控风险评价是有效降低井喷事故发生率、减少事故损失的基础工作。为了解决钻井井控风险评价中模糊的不确定的变量难以量化、不能准确量化的难题,将三角模糊数运用到井控风险评价中。针对钻井井控风险的特点,结合现场数据提出了11个关键的钻井井控风险诱因,归纳、分类建立了层次指标体系。结合三角模糊数的理论建立了基于三角模糊数的钻井井控风险定量评价模型。以罗家16H井为例,提取评价所需要的诱因参数,运用该模型进行计算分析,结果表明该井的综合风险值为0.624,属于高度风险值范围,故确定为高度风险等级,该风险等级评价结果与罗家16H井实际情况基本相符。研究表明该井控风险定量评价模型具有一定的准确性和实用性,可以用于现场对单井进行钻井井控风险评价。

Quantitative risk assessment model for drilling well control based on triangular fuzzy number

Strengthening the drilling well control risk assessment is the basic work of effectively reducing the incidence of blowout and accident loss.In order to solve the problem that fuzzy and uncertain variables are difficult to be quantified and can not be accurately quantified in the process of drilling well control risk assessment ,we have applied the triangular fuzzy number theory to well control risk evaluation.we have first of all proposed 11 key drilling well control risk incentives based on the characteristics of drilling well control risk and the basic parameters of accident wells.Though induction and classification,we have established a hierarchy index system. And, for the second,the successful application of the triangular fuzzy number theory to the well control risk indexes has enabled us to set up a model for the drilling well control risk the triangular fuzzy number. On the third, taking Luojia 16H Well for example, we have extracted each incentive parameter to work through the aforementioned model.The results of our investigation and calculations prove that the comprehensive risk value