基于AHP-FCE的通信系统风险评估

通信网络是一个关联性很强的系统，每个风险的发生都可能会出现连锁反应。通信系统安全风险研究主要集中在移动终 端安全、应用程序安全以及网络信息安全方面，缺乏对移动通信系统的整体安全评估。针对此问题，本文基于层次分析法-模糊综 合评价法(AHP-FCE)方法进行通信系统的整体安全风险评估。将移动通信系统风险分为四大类一级指标，即:移动终端安全风 险、移动网络安全风险、环境风险和人为风险，并进一步细分得到十八个二级指标。为避免打分法所存在不同经历专家具有相同 权重的问题，采用基于模糊层次分析法(Fuzzy-AHP)的专家权重计算方法，并结合层次分析法确定指标权重。然后使用模糊评 价法建立风险因素综合评价矩阵，得出移动通信系统各个风险指标的隶属度和对应风险范围。最后，根据本文方法进行了实例的 风险评估，评估结果与人工研判结果一致。并针对各类风险制定了相应防控措施，为通信系统风险评估提供了新思路。

Telecommunication system risk assessment based on AHP-FCE method 1121

The communication network is a highly interconnected system, and each risk has the potential to cause a chain reaction. Communication system security risk research focuses primarily on mobile terminal security, application security, and network information security, with no overall assessment of mobile communication system security. To address this issue, the Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (AHP-FCE) method was applied for the deoverall security risk assessment of communication systems. Mobile communication system risks were classified into four first-level indicator categories: mobile terminal security risk, mobile network security risk, environmental risk, and human risk, which were further subdivided to eighteen second-level indicators. To avoid the problem of experts with different levels of experience having the same weight in the scoring method, the expert weight calculation method based on Fuzzy-AHP was applied, and the index weights were determined by combining the AHP with the expert weight calculation method. Moreover, a comprehensive risk factor evaluation matrix using the fuzzy evaluation method was established to derive the affiliation degree and risk range of each risk indicator of the mobile communication system. Finally, the risk assessment of the example was performed using the method introduced in this paper.The assessment results agreed with the manual research and evaluation results. Also, for various types of risk, the corresponding prevention and control measures were developed, providing new ideas for the risk assessment of communication systems.