考虑空间相关性风扰动的中期冲突探测算法研究

针对中期冲突探测问题,建立了在不同高度两机相遇的模型。在考虑风速以及风扰动引起的两机位置相关性的基础上,得到两机相对位置的随机差分方程。对研究区域进行网格离散化后,构造弱收敛于此微分方程的马尔科夫链,快速求得相对速度可变的两机在未来数十分钟内任意时刻发生冲突的概率;并将算法扩展到两机当前位置不明确的情况。最后进行相关性对冲突概率的影响分析。

Mid-Term Conflict Detection Algorithm Considering Spatially Correlated Wind Perturbations

An encounter model for two aircraft flying at the different altitudes is introduced by studying the mid-term conflict detection problem. the relative position is governed by the stochastic differential equation after taking into account the correlation between the wind perturbations affecting the aircraft positions. Defining a Markov chain that converges weakly to the equation by discretizing the studying region, the probability of conflict from two aircrafts can be computed quickly with variable relative velocity at all future time instants in tens of minutes. Also, the probability of conflict can be computed when the current aircraft positions are uncertain. Finally, the affection to the probability of conflict from correlation is analyzed.