基于飞行计划集中处理的预战术航路飞行流量预测

为准确把握航路点流量变化趋势和缓解空中交通压力,提出了一种基于飞行计划集中处理的流量预测方法。首先,在预战术飞行流量管理阶段,通过飞行计划集中处理可得到的航空器飞行计划信息,根据各航班在起飞前提交的领航计划电报和全飞行剖面混杂模型来预测航空器的航迹；然后,通过预测出航空器过关键航路点的过点时间,并结合空域结构数据来获得主要航路点的流量预测值；最后,通过算例仿真的结果可以发现所提出的航路飞行流量预测方法能够很好的对关键航路点进行预测,并且方法是切实可行和有效的。

Pre-tactical Flight Flow Prediction of Air Routes On Centralized Flight Plan Processing

To accurately forecast the development trend of en-route flow points in the future and relieve air traffic pressure, a traffic prediction method based on centralized flight plan processing is proposed. First, the aircraft flight plan information obtained by centralized processing of flight plan is used to predict the flight path of aircraft according to the pilot plan telegrams submitted by each flight before take-off and the hybrid model of the whole flight profile in the stage of pre-tactical flight flow management. Then, the predicted flow value of main en-route points is obtained by predicting the crossing time of critical en-route points and combining with spatial structure data. Finally, through the simulation results of the example, it can find that the proposed traffic prediction method can predict the critical en-route points well, and this method is feasible and effective.