多重不确定性条件下区域综合能源系统随机调度

为研究多重不确定性条件下的区域综合能源系统的调度决策问题.首先基于Copula理论建立区域综合能源系统多随机源功率预测误差的联合概率分布模型;其次考虑多重功率预测误差的不确定性影响,提出一种以综合能源消费成本最小化为目标的随机调度期望值模型和算法,并基于典型系统进行案例分析,验证了模型算法的有效性.结果表明:多重不确定性因素的量化分析和随机调度模型的应用有助于提高区域综合能源系统调度决策结果的置信水平,具有一定的工程实用价值.

Research on Stochastic Dispatch of Regional Integrated Energy System under Multi-uncertainties

This paper focus on dispatch decision making method of regional integrated energy system under multiple uncertainties. Firstly, the joint probability distribution model of power prediction error of multiple random sources in regional integrated energy system is presented based on copula theory. Secondly, considering the uncertainty of multiple power prediction errors, an expectation model and algorithm of stochastic dispatch are proposed to minimize the energy cost of regional integrated energy system, and the validity of the model is verified by a case study based on a typical system. The results show that the quantitative analysis of multiple uncertain factors and the application of stochastic dispatch model are helpful to improve the confidence level of dispatch decision, and have certain engineering practical value.