基于Monte Carlo法的垃圾填埋场平移破坏可靠度分析

垃圾土力学特性指标在空间和时间上都存在很大的变异性。垃圾土力学特性指标主要用于填埋场边坡稳定分析中。首先,基于极限平衡原理的双楔体法获得可靠度分析的状态函数;然后,运用Monte Carlo法分析了垃圾土力学特性指标变异性对填埋场边坡稳定的影响。通过研究发现,随着样本数的增加,失效概率的标准差逐渐减小,但趋势减缓;随机产生8000样本数可以满足Monte Carlo法可靠度分析的收敛要求;考虑了垃圾土变异特性的填埋场可靠度分析,安全系数的概率分布并不只有一种分布,而是在正态分布与对数正态分布之间随机发生;所提方法所得可靠度指标值相比一次二阶矩法所得偏小,且该方法的随机分布性以及可操作性,使得这种方法能更好地评估填埋场的稳定性。

Reliability analysis of a municipal solid waste landfill against translational failure using Monte Carlo method

The mechanical characteristic index of municipal solid waste has great variability in space and time. In order to study the influence of this characteristic indexes of the solid waste of reliability analysis on the landfill slope. First, a state function of reliability analysis was obtained by using limit equilibrium two-wedge method; then, the Monte Carlo method then used was to the effect of the solid waste characteristic index variability on the stability of the landfill slope. The study found that with the increase of the sample capacity, the standardSdeviation of failure probability decreases, but the trend becomes slow; 8000 samples at random can meet the convergence requirements of the reliability analysis about the Monte Carlo method; with considering the variability of the solid waste of reliability analysis on the landfill slope, the probability distribution of safety factor is not only the same distribution, but occurs between normal distribution and logarithmicSnormalSdistribution at random. Finally, it was also found that the reliability index calculated by the Monte Carlo method is smaller than that got by the first order second moment method, random distribution and operability of the Monte Carlo can better assess the slope stability of the landfill.