伐木制品碳储量计量方法的比较

为了在《京都议定书》未来承诺期内将伐木制品(HWP)碳储存和排放相关的内容纳入缔约国强制性报告范围提供决策依据,根据可行性、准确性、满足《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》报告要求和国家政策相关性4项标准,对IPCC缺省法、储量变化法、生产法和大气流动法4种HWP碳储量计量方法及其不同层级的做法进行了评估。比较分析可得,在国家层面,不同方法得出的计量结果存在显著差异,将对缔约方在减排履约、经济社会和环境方面产生不同影响。因此,必须确定统一的HWP碳储量计量方法,避免遗漏和重复计算。然而,计量方法/做法对于实现国家政策目标各有利弊,不尽完善。

Evaluation of approaches for estimating carbon storage of wood products

This study employed four approaches for estimating carbon storage in HWP, including the IPCC Default Approach, the Stock-Change Approach, the Production Approach, and the Atmospheric-flow Approach, according to the four criteria being feasibility of approach, accuracy of approach, the relevance to the reporting needs of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and Kyoto Protocol(KP), and relevance to national policies. This study is to help policy-makers choose an approach to be used in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories under the IPCC Guidelines before it is mandatory to report the HWP for the Parties under the KP. We found that at the national level, the four approaches gave significantly different results and had different political, social-economic and environmental implications. Indeed, an internationally agreed approach was crucial to avoid double accounting or omission. However, all the approaches have both advantages and disadvantages concerning the achievement of political goals, while none of them is perfect. Then, this paper makes no policy recommendations as it is extremely complicated to take the direct and indirect incentives, as well as different scenarios assumed and conflicting policy goals into consideration.