基于MaxEnt模型的青钱柳潜在适宜栽培区预测

【目的】 青钱柳是集药用、材用和观赏价值于一身的多用途树种。通过应用贡献率、置换重要值比较以及Jackknife检验等综合分析方法,评价制约青钱柳现代地理分布的主要因子,可为青钱柳资源的科学保护和合理利用提供理论依据。【方法】基于183个青钱柳地理分布记录和8个气候环境因子数据,采用MaxEnt模型软件对青钱柳潜在适宜分布区进行预测,并在此基础上划分适宜栽培区。【结果】采用MaxEnt模型预测青钱柳潜在适宜分布区准确度极高,受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.964±0.006。目前,青钱柳高度适宜分布区为浙江南部、福建西北部、安徽南部、湖北东部、江西东部和西部、湖南东部和西部、贵州东部、重庆东部、陕西南部和四川东北部; 随着未来气温的升高,青钱柳有向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移的趋势。【结论】 影响青钱柳分布的主要气候因子是温度,包括年均温、季节温度变异系数和平均日温差,其中年均温为最主要因子。

MaxEnt model-based identification of potential Cyclocarya paliurus cultivation regions

Objective]Cyclocarya paliurus is a valuable tree species that is used for commercial timber,medicine and landscaping.Using percent contribution value,permutation replacement important values and the Jackknife test,the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of C.paliurus were evaluated,in order to provide a theoretical basis for the species' protection and conservation.Method] Based on 183 presence records and eight environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of C.paliurus,as well as areas suitable for its cultivation.Result] The accuracy of the MaxEnt model for predicting the potential distribution of C.paliurus was very high,and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC value) was 0.964 ± 0.006.According to the model,southern Zhejiang,northwestern Fujian,southern Anhui,eastern Hubei,eastern and western Jiangxi,eastern and western Hunan,eastern Guizhou,eastern Chongqing,southern shaanxi,and northeastern Sichuan are currently highly suitable for planting C.paliurus.As global temperatures increase in future,C.paliurus will likely expand its distribution to higher latitudes and altitudes.Conclusion] The main factors affecting the potential distribution of C.paliurus were related to air temperature,including annual mean temperature,seasonal variation and mean diurnal temperature range,moreover annual mean temperature was the most important factor.