| 含周期变动项的预测模型的建立与应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴涛,许义生.含周期变动项的预测模型的建立与应用[J].安徽大学学报(自然科学版),2002,26(4):14-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴涛 许义生 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽大学,数学系,安徽,合肥,230039 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省教育厅自然科学基金;2002KJ002; |
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| 摘 要： | 经济指标的变动具有明显的周期性,普通的回归预期测模型仅能反映趋势变动,误差通常很大.本文利用周期图方法,搜索出变量的隐含周期,并在此基础上,构造含周期变动项的预测模型.实例表明,该模型具有很高的拟合度和预测精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 周期变动 模型 预测误差 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-2162(2002)04-0014-04 |
A kind forecasting model with cyclic fluctuation and its application |
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| WU Tao,XU Yi-sheng.A kind forecasting model with cyclic fluctuation and its application[J].Journal of Anhui University(Natural Sciences),2002,26(4):14-17. |
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| Authors: | WU Tao XU Yi-sheng |
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| Abstract: | Economic forecasting models that established using method of ordinary regression analysis often have high error rate,for economic variables change petiodically,but regression model just reflect trend fluctuation.Based on cyclic graph,this paper mensurate the connotaaive cycles of variable and give a kind of forecasting model with cyclic fluctuation,an instance indicates that this kind model improve the accuracy of economic forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | cyclic fluctuation model forecasting error |
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