基于IPAT等式的兰州市城关区环境压力分析

兰州市经济发展较快,资源环境面临的压力也日益加重,导致实现污染物总量削减目标形势严峻。在分析兰州市经济发展和环境压力特征的基础上,以IPAT等式为理论基础,以兰州市城关区2010年的GDP增长数据和环境负荷数据为依据,分情景计算和讨论了"十二五"末环境负荷强度的变化情况,并提出了城关区实现跨越式发展条件下控制环境负荷强度的建议。结果表明城关区"十二五"期间的水污染治理效果显著,而大气污染治理任务仍然繁重,但是对于这些单一指标的分析很难说明总体环境压力的变化趋势,需要设计组合的环境负荷指标做进一步的研究。经济增长速度的加快对强减污染化的进程影响并不是很大,都需要付出几乎相同的努力才能进入环境库兹涅茨曲线的下降段。

Analysis on environmental stress in Chengguan district of Lanzhou city based on IPAT identity

The rapid economic development of Lanzhou city causes increasing pressure of resources and environment,and this leads to total pollutant reduction targets grim.This author takes IPAT identity as the theoretical foundation,a model for environmental load is developed.Using the economic growth and environmental load data of Chengguan District in 2010,the current situation of economic system is analyzed.After that,the status of environmental load intensity of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” is calculated and discussed under different scenarios.Finally,suggestions for controlling environmental load intensity with rapid economic development are proposed.The results showed that：the effect of water pollution control in Chengguan District is significant during the “Twelve Five” period,while air pollution control task is still arduous.But these conclusions were drawn from single indicator which was difficult to explain the overall environmental pressures,and a combination of environmental impact indicators was needed for further research.The acceleration of economic growth has little impact on the strong reduction of pollution,almost the same effort was needed to enter the falling section of the Environmental Kuznets Curve.