基于GM（1．1）模型的尾矿坝变形趋势预测

尾矿坝变形趋势预测是矿山尾矿库安全技术管理的重要内容．为了实现对尾矿坝变形趋势的预测，在深入分析尾矿坝变形机理并充分认识尾矿库工程系统及坝体变形数据特性的基础上，采用灰色GM（1．1）模型对尾矿坝的变形进行预测，并结合某金矿尾矿坝变形监测实际数据进行预测．结果表明，模型精度满足要求，灰色GM（1．1）模型用于尾矿坝变形趋势预测具有很好的适用性．

Prediction of the tailings dam deformation trend based on the GM（1.1） model

Prediction of the trend of tailing dam deformation is an important part of mine tailing pond safety technical management. In order to predict the tendency of tailing dam deformation, we use grey GM（1.1） model combining with the monitoring data of an iron mine＇s tailing dam deformation for the prediction, based on deeply analysis of the railings dam deformation mecha- nism and fully understanding of the tailing pond engineering system and the characteristic of the dam deformation data. The grey GM（1.1） model has high accuracy and could satisfy the require- ment of the prediction, which demonstrates it would have a good applicability in prediction of the trend of tailing dam deformation.