| 分布式监测系统可靠性贝叶斯评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 易朋兴,刘世元,杜润生,杨叔子.分布式监测系统可靠性贝叶斯评估[J].华中科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(3):42-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 易朋兴 刘世元 杜润生 杨叔子 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学,机械科学与工程学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 以贝叶斯理论为依据,考虑元件可靠性评估不确定性的影响,建立分布式监测系统的系统可靠性评估方法.在单个元件存活率服从二项分布的前提下,用元件可靠度评估的高阶矩计算系统可靠度评估方差与置信区间,利用贝叶斯方法进行元件可靠度评估和系统可靠度置信区间分析.通过一个实例进行计算与分析,表明该方法在监测系统可靠性设计与评估方面有一定实用价值.
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| 关 键 词： | 分布式监测系统 方差 置信区间 贝叶斯方法 系统可靠度 |
| 文章编号： | 1671-4512(2006)03-0042-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 04 26 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年4月26日 |
Estimation of system reliability of distributed monitoring systems by Bayesian method |
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| Yi Pengxing,Liu Shiyuan,Du Runsheng,Yang Shuzi.Estimation of system reliability of distributed monitoring systems by Bayesian method[J].JOURNAL OF HUAZHONG UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY.NATURE SCIENCE,2006,34(3):42-45. |
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| Authors: | Yi Pengxing Liu Shiyuan Du Runsheng Yang Shuzi |
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| Abstract: | An estimation method of system reliability based on Bayesian statistical theory is presented in consideration of the uncertainty of component reliability estimates for distributed monitoring systems.The system reliability estimation variance and confidence intervals are obtained with higher order moments of component reliability estimates.A Bayesian estimation method is used to estimate the higher order moments of the component reliability and to determine the confidence intervals of the system reliability estimation.A practical case is used to illustrate the procedure.The results showed that the method proposed is practical and valuable for designing monitoring systems and their maintenance. |
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| Keywords: | distributed monitoring system variance confidence intervals Bayesian method system reliability |
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