中国经济可计算一般均衡模型C-CGE

本文基于新古典经济学一般均衡理论,结合我国经济发展现状建立了多部门CGE经济模型。模型理论框架中,汇入了价格刚性和不完全市场机制。CCGE模型完成的多种想定方案仿真结果显示出综合意向强、因果关系确切的特点。可为发展战略决策提供理论依据。

A Computable General Equilibrium Model ( C-CGE ) for Chinese Economy

This paper presents a multi-sectoral economic model of computable general equilibrium pattern, the C-CGE model. Its theoretical basis is the neo-classical economics which emphasises the price-oriented resource allocation and the importance of the operation of markets and has embedded into the framework the specific features of price stiffness and market imperfections of current Chinese economy as these features might prevent the achievement of a full neo-classical equilibrium in short or even medium run. The nested CES(Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production functions are assumed to be useful in manufacturing and modern urban services while the Cobb-Douglas functions are used to describe the production activities in agriculture, traditional services and house-building sectors. The price- responsive demand relationships are embedded in an Extended Linear Expenditure System (ELES)of the model. Comparative static equilibrium is attained under the condition when, with constrained factor mobility, the equalization of the expected rents with the rates of return is to be found. In the meantime, it is assumed that both the firms and households are to maximize the returns and benefits subject respectively to their constraints.C-CGE is the core of the model system designed for China's developmental strategy study (CDSS) and can be used independently to make economic predictions.