| 不同增长趋势下中长期电量预测组合优化灰色模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁屹峰,程浩忠,江峰青,陈春霖,房领峰.不同增长趋势下中长期电量预测组合优化灰色模型[J].上海交通大学学报,2003,37(9):1355-1357,1371. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁屹峰 程浩忠 江峰青 陈春霖 房领峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 上海交通大学,电气工程系,上海,200030
2. 上海市电力公司,发展计划科,上海,200002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(50177017) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对中长期电量预测中时间跨度大、电力需求增长不确定的特性，根据不同时期的增长率，运用灰色理论进行优化分段预测，同时引入组合模型的概念，建立了以残差平方和最小为目标函数的组合优化模型，并运用二次规划法求解，算例证明，该方法能得到较高精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 电量预测 组合灰色模型 残差平方和 二次规划 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-2467(2003)09-1355-03 |
Combined Optimum Grey Model for Mid-Long Term Electric Capacity Forecasting under Different Growing Trends |
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| DING Yi-feng,CHENG Hao-zhong,JIANG Feng-qing,CHEN Chun-ling,FANG Ling-feng.Combined Optimum Grey Model for Mid-Long Term Electric Capacity Forecasting under Different Growing Trends[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2003,37(9):1355-1357,1371. |
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| Authors: | DING Yi-feng CHENG Hao-zhong JIANG Feng-qing CHEN Chun-ling FANG Ling-feng |
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| Abstract: | There are some characters in mid-long term electric capacity forecasting, such as longer time and uncertain demand increasing. According to the growth rate in different period, a grey model was used to segmented forecast. Meanwhile, a combined model was proposed, which is based on minimizing the squares sum of the residues, and the quadratic programming was used to get the solution. The example shows the method can get more accurate results. |
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| Keywords: | electric capacity forecasting combined grey model squares sum of residues quadratic programming |
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