基于风险的船体结构腐蚀检测规划

提出了基于风险的船体结构腐蚀检测的基本理论框架以及构件修复度的概念．采用贝叶斯方法分析了船体结构在检测及维修后的可靠性更新．建立了构件检测及维修策略的决策树．通过比较不同检测及维修策略的期望费用确定出了最优的检测及维修策略．在此基础上，对检测及维修策略的决策结果进行了敏感性分析，推导了有关的计算公式．计算结果表明，所提出的方法在选择检测及维修策略时是有效的，而且不同的费用取值对决策结果的可靠性和稳定性有明显的影响．

Risk-Based Inspection Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration

A theoretical framework of risk-based inspection and repair was proposed for the ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. A repair index was presented to consider the reliability updating after repair. The reliability updating was performed using the Bayesian updating method. A decision tree was established for selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. By comparing the expected costs associated with different inspection and repair strategies, the smallest expected cost associated with the inspection and repair strategy can be identified as the optimal one. Based on them, a method was proposed to perform the sensitivity analysis. Some formulae were derived to analyze the sensitivities. A numerical example was investigated to illustrate the process of selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The results show that the decision tree method is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. Different values of various costs have significant effects on the reliability and stability of decision results.